- Trump is poised to lose a small — but significant — share of GOP voters over his conviction.
- A Reuters/Ipsos survey found that 10% of GOP voters were now less likely to vote for Trump.
- The tiniest shift in votes could have major implications this fall.
After a jury convicted former President Donald Trump last week on 34 counts of falsifying business records to conceal a sex scandal, Republican lawmakers overwhelmingly threw their support behind their party's 2024 standard-bearer.
Most GOP voters also backed Trump. The former president's campaign said it raised $53 million in small donations since the conviction.
But in a recent Reuters/Ipsos survey, a small but potentially significant share of Republican voters indicated they were less likely to support Trump after his conviction. Taken over two days after the guilty verdict, 10% of GOP voters said the result would give them second thoughts.
That could be significant come November. The former president has continued to shed votes to former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley in recent GOP primaries, especially in critical suburban areas. And in the battleground states that will be essential for Trump and President Joe Biden, any small shift could be a game changer.
The majority of Trump's staunchest supporters, meanwhile, said the conviction wouldn't impact their vote and about 35% said the verdict made them more likely to back Trump.
Among independents, 25% said Trump's conviction made them less likely to back the former president. That could also drag down the ex-president. It could also impact GOP candidates in critical Senate and House races.
Like Republicans, the majority of independents — 56% — said the conviction would have no bearing on their vote, while 18% of respondents said the conviction would make them more likely to support Trump.
The overall presidential race remains close. Over 40% of respondents said they would back Biden in November, while 39% said they would support Trump.